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2020 Watch List - Buy/Sell
mwekez@ji
#1 Posted : Monday, January 13, 2020 6:54:45 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,115


Source: Cytonn

*Target Price as per Cytonn Analyst estimates

**Upside/ (Downside) is adjusted for Dividend Yield

***Banks in which Cytonn and/ or its affiliates are invested in
McGill
#2 Posted : Monday, January 13, 2020 10:55:01 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 8/1/2019
Posts: 33
mwekez@ji wrote:


Source: Cytonn

*Target Price as per Cytonn Analyst estimates

**Upside/ (Downside) is adjusted for Dividend Yield

***Banks in which Cytonn and/ or its affiliates are invested in


Unfortunately my kenya-re wounds are still fresh. Kidonda ndugu hainiruhusu Sad
Balaa
#3 Posted : Monday, January 13, 2020 1:02:03 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/6/2018
Posts: 148
Location: Kinshasa
McGill wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:


Source: Cytonn

*Target Price as per Cytonn Analyst estimates

**Upside/ (Downside) is adjusted for Dividend Yield

***Banks in which Cytonn and/ or its affiliates are invested in


Unfortunately my kenya-re wounds are still fresh. Kidonda ndugu hainiruhusu Sad

How come the promoters are not buying Kenya Re - it's been tops on their charts for weeks now?Sad
VituVingiSana
#4 Posted : Monday, January 13, 2020 1:48:40 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,208
Location: Nairobi
Balaa wrote:
McGill wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:


Source: Cytonn

*Target Price as per Cytonn Analyst estimates

**Upside/ (Downside) is adjusted for Dividend Yield

***Banks in which Cytonn and/ or its affiliates are invested in


Unfortunately my kenya-re wounds are still fresh. Kidonda ndugu hainiruhusu Sad

How come the promoters are not buying Kenya Re - it's been tops on their charts for weeks now?Sad
Perhaps it is about liquidity of the shares.

I like KenRe (except the GoK control aspect) as a value play but I also have to accept I will have to hold onto these for a long, long time.
Perhaps Cytonn does not have that luxury.

It is easier to buy and sell KCB, etc given the liquidity.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
McGill
#5 Posted : Monday, January 13, 2020 2:08:21 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 8/1/2019
Posts: 33
Balaa wrote:
McGill wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:


Source: Cytonn

*Target Price as per Cytonn Analyst estimates

**Upside/ (Downside) is adjusted for Dividend Yield

***Banks in which Cytonn and/ or its affiliates are invested in


Unfortunately my kenya-re wounds are still fresh. Kidonda ndugu hainiruhusu Sad

How come the promoters are not buying Kenya Re - it's been tops on their charts for weeks now?Sad



Good question. According to them it is the stock with the highest upside potential but they are not buying it.
sparkly
#6 Posted : Tuesday, January 14, 2020 9:30:44 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 7,891
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Kenya Re is worth Kshs 9 per share but has remained a value trap for years.
Life is short. Live passionately.
Ericsson
#7 Posted : Tuesday, January 14, 2020 10:13:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,866
Location: NAIROBI
sparkly wrote:
Kenya Re is worth Kshs 9 per share but has remained a value trap for years.


If they increase their dividend payout,then share price rally will follow.
If dividend issuance rises to 40 cents share price will be in the range of 8-9
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
xtina
#8 Posted : Wednesday, January 15, 2020 10:36:21 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/26/2008
Posts: 330
Kenya Re is one boring share, it's like watching paint dry. Guess that's why people like it
VituVingiSana
#9 Posted : Thursday, January 16, 2020 12:26:54 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,208
Location: Nairobi
xtina wrote:
Kenya Re is one boring share, it's like watching paint dry. Guess that's why people like it
Warren Buffett loves to watch paint dry.
https://money.cnn.com/20...paint-company/index.html
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Receptor
#10 Posted : Thursday, January 16, 2020 7:52:17 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 7/1/2019
Posts: 62
mwekez@ji wrote:


Source: Cytonn

*Target Price as per Cytonn Analyst estimates

**Upside/ (Downside) is adjusted for Dividend Yield

***Banks in which Cytonn and/ or its affiliates are invested in



Any stock on this list with a multiple of <= 1.0 is dirt cheap. Take action now. KCB and Equity had the same kind of multiples pre rate cap lifting and now they are a bit expensive
VituVingiSana
#11 Posted : Thursday, January 16, 2020 9:26:11 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,208
Location: Nairobi
Receptor wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:


Source: Cytonn

*Target Price as per Cytonn Analyst estimates

**Upside/ (Downside) is adjusted for Dividend Yield

***Banks in which Cytonn and/ or its affiliates are invested in



Any stock on this list with a multiple of <= 1.0 is dirt cheap. Take action now. KCB and Equity had the same kind of multiples pre rate cap lifting and now they are a bit expensive
Applause Applause Applause
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mwekez@ji
#12 Posted : Tuesday, January 21, 2020 11:14:52 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,115
GENGHIS PLAYBOOK 2020…Harnessing Value

Dear Investors,

The Kenyan market still trades at a historical discount despite rally on key counters and potential downward shifts in the market will lead to attractive entry points. Valuations are still attractive for some of the counters especially stocks that missed out on last year’s rally despite their attractive prices and strong fundamentals including EABL, KenGen and KCB. Foreign investor inflow at the NSE is expected to persist during the year from stronger earnings from the key stocks and anchored by a stable currency (estimated at KES 100 - 104), which gained against USD for second year running.

On the economic front, we expect a GDP growth rate of 5.7% with expected protracted challenges in private consumption due deterioration in the business environment. Additionally, we do not see government achieve its fiscal consolidation efforts (5.6% fiscal deficit) expected at 7.0% this year.

By incorporating the key macro and corporate factors, the Genghis Capital Playbook 2020 seeks to bridge the gap between our clients and our research material. We move away from the traditional valuation reports and run our own Kenyan notional Equities and Fixed Income portfolios. These are constructed along similar mandates to those faced by our clients and the performance is tracked and our commentary along with our results published via our Genghis Weekly Report and Bloomberg terminal.






mwekez@ji
#13 Posted : Tuesday, January 21, 2020 11:18:41 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,115
Ericsson
#14 Posted : Thursday, January 23, 2020 5:26:14 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,866
Location: NAIROBI
Top 5 Performing Stocks YTD
Kenya Airways +16.59%
Carbacid Investments +12.50%
CIC Insurance +10.07%
BOC Kenya +8.62%
WPPScangroup +8.43%
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
whiteowl
#15 Posted : Friday, January 24, 2020 12:05:12 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
mwekez@ji wrote:


only DTB has potential of recovery in the loss list. The rest might die for good.
mufasa
#16 Posted : Friday, January 24, 2020 10:22:18 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 177

mwekez@ji wrote:
GENGHIS PLAYBOOK 2020…Harnessing Value

Dear Investors,

The Kenyan market still trades at a historical discount despite rally on key counters and potential downward shifts in the market will lead to attractive entry points. Valuations are still attractive for some of the counters especially stocks that missed out on last year’s rally despite their attractive prices and strong fundamentals including EABL, KenGen and KCB. Foreign investor inflow at the NSE is expected to persist during the year from stronger earnings from the key stocks and anchored by a stable currency (estimated at KES 100 - 104), which gained against USD for second year running.

On the economic front, we expect a GDP growth rate of 5.7% with expected protracted challenges in private consumption due deterioration in the business environment. Additionally, we do not see government achieve its fiscal consolidation efforts (5.6% fiscal deficit) expected at 7.0% this year.

By incorporating the key macro and corporate factors, the Genghis Capital Playbook 2020 seeks to bridge the gap between our clients and our research material. We move away from the traditional valuation reports and run our own Kenyan notional Equities and Fixed Income portfolios. These are constructed along similar mandates to those faced by our clients and the performance is tracked and our commentary along with our results published via our Genghis Weekly Report and Bloomberg terminal.




KENGEN IS A VALUE TRAP
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
Ericsson
#17 Posted : Friday, January 24, 2020 11:44:12 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,866
Location: NAIROBI
mufasa wrote:

mwekez@ji wrote:
GENGHIS PLAYBOOK 2020…Harnessing Value

Dear Investors,

The Kenyan market still trades at a historical discount despite rally on key counters and potential downward shifts in the market will lead to attractive entry points. Valuations are still attractive for some of the counters especially stocks that missed out on last year’s rally despite their attractive prices and strong fundamentals including EABL, KenGen and KCB. Foreign investor inflow at the NSE is expected to persist during the year from stronger earnings from the key stocks and anchored by a stable currency (estimated at KES 100 - 104), which gained against USD for second year running.

On the economic front, we expect a GDP growth rate of 5.7% with expected protracted challenges in private consumption due deterioration in the business environment. Additionally, we do not see government achieve its fiscal consolidation efforts (5.6% fiscal deficit) expected at 7.0% this year.

By incorporating the key macro and corporate factors, the Genghis Capital Playbook 2020 seeks to bridge the gap between our clients and our research material. We move away from the traditional valuation reports and run our own Kenyan notional Equities and Fixed Income portfolios. These are constructed along similar mandates to those faced by our clients and the performance is tracked and our commentary along with our results published via our Genghis Weekly Report and Bloomberg terminal.




KENGEN IS A VALUE TRAP

Explain
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
kawi254
#18 Posted : Friday, January 24, 2020 12:20:56 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2015
Posts: 383
Location: Nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
mufasa wrote:

mwekez@ji wrote:
GENGHIS PLAYBOOK 2020…Harnessing Value

Dear Investors,

The Kenyan market still trades at a historical discount despite rally on key counters and potential downward shifts in the market will lead to attractive entry points. Valuations are still attractive for some of the counters especially stocks that missed out on last year’s rally despite their attractive prices and strong fundamentals including EABL, KenGen and KCB. Foreign investor inflow at the NSE is expected to persist during the year from stronger earnings from the key stocks and anchored by a stable currency (estimated at KES 100 - 104), which gained against USD for second year running.

On the economic front, we expect a GDP growth rate of 5.7% with expected protracted challenges in private consumption due deterioration in the business environment. Additionally, we do not see government achieve its fiscal consolidation efforts (5.6% fiscal deficit) expected at 7.0% this year.

By incorporating the key macro and corporate factors, the Genghis Capital Playbook 2020 seeks to bridge the gap between our clients and our research material. We move away from the traditional valuation reports and run our own Kenyan notional Equities and Fixed Income portfolios. These are constructed along similar mandates to those faced by our clients and the performance is tracked and our commentary along with our results published via our Genghis Weekly Report and Bloomberg terminal.




KENGEN IS A VALUE TRAP

Explain



Last x years KenGen's share price has kept going down/stagnating. Investors are told to invest in KenGen for long term but how many years is long term? It is cheap but just locks in your capital. We can't tell the future but looking at the past 5 years KenGen was not the place to invest money. Methinks KenGen is like an Airline....very good as an Employer but not as a shareholder.

FUNKY
#19 Posted : Friday, January 24, 2020 1:20:18 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,623
mufasa wrote:

mwekez@ji wrote:
GENGHIS PLAYBOOK 2020…Harnessing Value

Dear Investors,

The Kenyan market still trades at a historical discount despite rally on key counters and potential downward shifts in the market will lead to attractive entry points. Valuations are still attractive for some of the counters especially stocks that missed out on last year’s rally despite their attractive prices and strong fundamentals including EABL, KenGen and KCB. Foreign investor inflow at the NSE is expected to persist during the year from stronger earnings from the key stocks and anchored by a stable currency (estimated at KES 100 - 104), which gained against USD for second year running.

On the economic front, we expect a GDP growth rate of 5.7% with expected protracted challenges in private consumption due deterioration in the business environment. Additionally, we do not see government achieve its fiscal consolidation efforts (5.6% fiscal deficit) expected at 7.0% this year.

By incorporating the key macro and corporate factors, the Genghis Capital Playbook 2020 seeks to bridge the gap between our clients and our research material. We move away from the traditional valuation reports and run our own Kenyan notional Equities and Fixed Income portfolios. These are constructed along similar mandates to those faced by our clients and the performance is tracked and our commentary along with our results published via our Genghis Weekly Report and Bloomberg terminal.




KENGEN IS A VALUE TRAP


I will say kengen is value for money currently...it is one of the cheapest share available with very good fundamentals
Ericsson
#20 Posted : Friday, January 24, 2020 1:57:24 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,866
Location: NAIROBI
FUNKY wrote:
mufasa wrote:

mwekez@ji wrote:
GENGHIS PLAYBOOK 2020…Harnessing Value

Dear Investors,

The Kenyan market still trades at a historical discount despite rally on key counters and potential downward shifts in the market will lead to attractive entry points. Valuations are still attractive for some of the counters especially stocks that missed out on last year’s rally despite their attractive prices and strong fundamentals including EABL, KenGen and KCB. Foreign investor inflow at the NSE is expected to persist during the year from stronger earnings from the key stocks and anchored by a stable currency (estimated at KES 100 - 104), which gained against USD for second year running.

On the economic front, we expect a GDP growth rate of 5.7% with expected protracted challenges in private consumption due deterioration in the business environment. Additionally, we do not see government achieve its fiscal consolidation efforts (5.6% fiscal deficit) expected at 7.0% this year.

By incorporating the key macro and corporate factors, the Genghis Capital Playbook 2020 seeks to bridge the gap between our clients and our research material. We move away from the traditional valuation reports and run our own Kenyan notional Equities and Fixed Income portfolios. These are constructed along similar mandates to those faced by our clients and the performance is tracked and our commentary along with our results published via our Genghis Weekly Report and Bloomberg terminal.




KENGEN IS A VALUE TRAP


I will say kengen is value for money currently...it is one of the cheapest share available with very good fundamentals

Good fundamentals like delayed FY results
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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