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An analysis of Boc Kenya limited
valueinvestingkenya
#1 Posted : Friday, April 24, 2015 3:19:54 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/19/2014
Posts: 15
Lets see how we can buy a little of Germany stock Exchange through a subsidiary BOC Kenya limited which is 65% owned by UK BOC holding which happens that the Major shareholder is Linde Group a member of the DAX 30 index which has 600 affiliated companies in 100 countries, it could be if we looked more closely, Linde group could be worth more than it’s market cap has us believe and probably a better bet than it’s subsidiary, Private market value and break up value could attest to that but for now the subsidiary will have to do lets see if the 35% not yet owned by Linde Group is worth more than its value. Boc Kenya limited engages in the manufacture and sale of industrial gases,medical gases and welding products the company operates through it subsidiary (Afrox) which include Boc Tanzania, Boc Uganda and Kivuli limited. Boc Kenya limited is completely automated in that it houses only 95 employees and this jumps out when you compare it with a company in very different industry but also listed on the same exchange the company is Crown paints Kenya limited, despite the latter having more than double BOC Kenya sales and more than double BOC employees it on eked out just 6 million BOC in net income. What is BOC worth its not that straight forward but just a little digging will give you all you need to value this company as per its 2013 financials BOC book value stood at 107 what you may not realize outright is that most of the book value is actually cash and cash equivalents, making the enterprise value of the company less than half the market cap. The part that may throw you off balance is the available for sale financial assets part, part of this has been put in both the current assets and long term assets on a 20% and 70% respectively, a check on notes to the financial statements they are all either bonds,treasury bills and stocks, which means they are all disposable. So we add the cash and cash equivalent, all the financial assets and term deposits including the tax recoverable present value stated on the balance sheet as current assets which means they expect it within a year and less the total from the market cap and what you get is the enterprise value divide this by the shares outstanding and the enterprise value per share is 57.7. This mean that for every 135 shillings you lay out buying BOC Kenya you are getting 77.3 shillings in liquid asset. Heading to the ratios the operating cash flow for 2013 was 299,311 (figures in millions) but what we need is the, free cash flow less maintenance capex which amazingly the company lays out for you and then divide that by total shares outstanding and the free cash flow per share stands at 13.38, if we divide the enterprise value with the free cash flow per share we get the free cash flow yield at 23.19 this is almost double the 10 year Kenyan bond at 12.78 currently. Put it another way BOC Kenya limited can buy its self out of the market using its free cash flow in less than 5 years. If we were to get the net present value of this free cash flow within a span of 5 years assuming that the company will never do better than current and using the discount rate of between 9 and 13 respectively(the discount rate have been chosen to be higher than the 91 day treasury bill and 10 year bond which currently stand at 8.408 and 12.78 respectively) gives us net present value of 72.5 and 59.2 which means that BOC Kenya limited at an enterprise value 57.7 is valued as though its from a different planet and a yield of 23.19 makes it a better option. This brings me to what my estimated intrinsic value of BOC Kenya is and my range falls between 170 and 190-200 or there about which means at the current price its undervalued by more than 50%. All this is good but you will need a catalyst for the price to close in, at what my estimated intrinsic value is, and I think I have it and it comes in looking at what the shareholding structure of BOC Kenya limited looks like, first foreign investor run the Kenya stock exchange, in other words they move the market, so should there be a foreign investor sell off what as an investor invested in BOC stock will experience is a price risk and not a business risk, which at this point you should break the bank and accumulate more of BOC stock, a look at the ten largest shareholders they own 83% of the total shares outstanding of which 74% is owned by foreign individuals and institutions and 26% left is owned by local individuals and institutions, as per the new CMA rules since 2013 a foreign institution can own 100% of a Kenyan company up from 75%, so Linde group can up its game and acquire more on the cheap, and if my value of BOC is roughly right Foreign investor will figure out this too and bid the price upwards, what of the opposite if the local institutions should dumb the stock en-mass a price decline is inevitable. I have never invested with total certainty of how the market will react, having most of the odds in my favor is more than I can ask for, secondly as the population of young people in Africa explodes, from a long term view, sales can only increase for BOC Kenya since more and more of its products will be consumed though none of this growth has been factored into my valuation, if and when it happens I would like to get it for free. BOC paid 66% of its earnings as dividends what should catch the intelligent investor is that this is a dividend yield of 88% of BOC Kenya enterprise value, so you get paid very handsomely as you wait for the price to close with your intrinsic value. Find more on valueinveinvestingkenya.wordpress.com
mlennyma
#2 Posted : Friday, April 24, 2015 9:18:55 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,034
Location: nairobi
valueinvestingkenya wrote:
Lets see how we can buy a little of Germany stock Exchange through a subsidiary BOC Kenya limited which is 65% owned by UK BOC holding which happens that the Major shareholder is Linde Group a member of the DAX 30 index which has 600 affiliated companies in 100 countries, it could be if we looked more closely, Linde group could be worth more than it’s market cap has us believe and probably a better bet than it’s subsidiary, Private market value and break up value could attest to that but for now the subsidiary will have to do lets see if the 35% not yet owned by Linde Group is worth more than its value. Boc Kenya limited engages in the manufacture and sale of industrial gases,medical gases and welding products the company operates through it subsidiary (Afrox) which include Boc Tanzania, Boc Uganda and Kivuli limited. Boc Kenya limited is completely automated in that it houses only 95 employees and this jumps out when you compare it with a company in very different industry but also listed on the same exchange the company is Crown paints Kenya limited, despite the latter having more than double BOC Kenya sales and more than double BOC employees it on eked out just 6 million BOC in net income. What is BOC worth its not that straight forward but just a little digging will give you all you need to value this company as per its 2013 financials BOC book value stood at 107 what you may not realize outright is that most of the book value is actually cash and cash equivalents, making the enterprise value of the company less than half the market cap. The part that may throw you off balance is the available for sale financial assets part, part of this has been put in both the current assets and long term assets on a 20% and 70% respectively, a check on notes to the financial statements they are all either bonds,treasury bills and stocks, which means they are all disposable. So we add the cash and cash equivalent, all the financial assets and term deposits including the tax recoverable present value stated on the balance sheet as current assets which means they expect it within a year and less the total from the market cap and what you get is the enterprise value divide this by the shares outstanding and the enterprise value per share is 57.7. This mean that for every 135 shillings you lay out buying BOC Kenya you are getting 77.3 shillings in liquid asset. Heading to the ratios the operating cash flow for 2013 was 299,311 (figures in millions) but what we need is the, free cash flow less maintenance capex which amazingly the company lays out for you and then divide that by total shares outstanding and the free cash flow per share stands at 13.38, if we divide the enterprise value with the free cash flow per share we get the free cash flow yield at 23.19 this is almost double the 10 year Kenyan bond at 12.78 currently. Put it another way BOC Kenya limited can buy its self out of the market using its free cash flow in less than 5 years. If we were to get the net present value of this free cash flow within a span of 5 years assuming that the company will never do better than current and using the discount rate of between 9 and 13 respectively(the discount rate have been chosen to be higher than the 91 day treasury bill and 10 year bond which currently stand at 8.408 and 12.78 respectively) gives us net present value of 72.5 and 59.2 which means that BOC Kenya limited at an enterprise value 57.7 is valued as though its from a different planet and a yield of 23.19 makes it a better option. This brings me to what my estimated intrinsic value of BOC Kenya is and my range falls between 170 and 190-200 or there about which means at the current price its undervalued by more than 50%. All this is good but you will need a catalyst for the price to close in, at what my estimated intrinsic value is, and I think I have it and it comes in looking at what the shareholding structure of BOC Kenya limited looks like, first foreign investor run the Kenya stock exchange, in other words they move the market, so should there be a foreign investor sell off what as an investor invested in BOC stock will experience is a price risk and not a business risk, which at this point you should break the bank and accumulate more of BOC stock, a look at the ten largest shareholders they own 83% of the total shares outstanding of which 74% is owned by foreign individuals and institutions and 26% left is owned by local individuals and institutions, as per the new CMA rules since 2013 a foreign institution can own 100% of a Kenyan company up from 75%, so Linde group can up its game and acquire more on the cheap, and if my value of BOC is roughly right Foreign investor will figure out this too and bid the price upwards, what of the opposite if the local institutions should dumb the stock en-mass a price decline is inevitable. I have never invested with total certainty of how the market will react, having most of the odds in my favor is more than I can ask for, secondly as the population of young people in Africa explodes, from a long term view, sales can only increase for BOC Kenya since more and more of its products will be consumed though none of this growth has been factored into my valuation, if and when it happens I would like to get it for free. BOC paid 66% of its earnings as dividends what should catch the intelligent investor is that this is a dividend yield of 88% of BOC Kenya enterprise value, so you get paid very handsomely as you wait for the price to close with your intrinsic value. Find more on valueinveinvestingkenya.wordpress.com

Interesting Gospel to read, this could be why this share is very illiquid and few locals understand it.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
target1360
#3 Posted : Saturday, April 25, 2015 12:48:31 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/14/2014
Posts: 282
Location: nairobi
this line of thought sounds farmiliar
I find satisfaction in owning great business,not trading them
valueinvestingkenya
#4 Posted : Monday, April 27, 2015 7:49:46 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/19/2014
Posts: 15
Few people understand stocks they buy, they buy due to other reasons not their own research and understanding,my line of thought is long term,and I like to be roughly right and not precisely wrong,there is a way to win at everything it just has to be found.
1masha
#5 Posted : Monday, April 27, 2015 8:09:35 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 2/28/2014
Posts: 41
valueinvestingkenya wrote:
Lets see how we can buy a little of Germany stock Exchange through a subsidiary BOC Kenya limited which is 65% owned by UK BOC holding which happens that the Major shareholder is Linde Group a member of the DAX 30 index which has 600 affiliated companies in 100 countries, it could be if we looked more closely, Linde group could be worth more than it’s market cap has us believe and probably a better bet than it’s subsidiary, Private market value and break up value could attest to that but for now the subsidiary will have to do lets see if the 35% not yet owned by Linde Group is worth more than its value. Boc Kenya limited engages in the manufacture and sale of industrial gases,medical gases and welding products the company operates through it subsidiary (Afrox) which include Boc Tanzania, Boc Uganda and Kivuli limited. Boc Kenya limited is completely automated in that it houses only 95 employees and this jumps out when you compare it with a company in very different industry but also listed on the same exchange the company is Crown paints Kenya limited, despite the latter having more than double BOC Kenya sales and more than double BOC employees it on eked out just 6 million BOC in net income. What is BOC worth its not that straight forward but just a little digging will give you all you need to value this company as per its 2013 financials BOC book value stood at 107 what you may not realize outright is that most of the book value is actually cash and cash equivalents, making the enterprise value of the company less than half the market cap. The part that may throw you off balance is the available for sale financial assets part, part of this has been put in both the current assets and long term assets on a 20% and 70% respectively, a check on notes to the financial statements they are all either bonds,treasury bills and stocks, which means they are all disposable. So we add the cash and cash equivalent, all the financial assets and term deposits including the tax recoverable present value stated on the balance sheet as current assets which means they expect it within a year and less the total from the market cap and what you get is the enterprise value divide this by the shares outstanding and the enterprise value per share is 57.7. This mean that for every 135 shillings you lay out buying BOC Kenya you are getting 77.3 shillings in liquid asset. Heading to the ratios the operating cash flow for 2013 was 299,311 (figures in millions) but what we need is the, free cash flow less maintenance capex which amazingly the company lays out for you and then divide that by total shares outstanding and the free cash flow per share stands at 13.38, if we divide the enterprise value with the free cash flow per share we get the free cash flow yield at 23.19 this is almost double the 10 year Kenyan bond at 12.78 currently. Put it another way BOC Kenya limited can buy its self out of the market using its free cash flow in less than 5 years. If we were to get the net present value of this free cash flow within a span of 5 years assuming that the company will never do better than current and using the discount rate of between 9 and 13 respectively(the discount rate have been chosen to be higher than the 91 day treasury bill and 10 year bond which currently stand at 8.408 and 12.78 respectively) gives us net present value of 72.5 and 59.2 which means that BOC Kenya limited at an enterprise value 57.7 is valued as though its from a different planet and a yield of 23.19 makes it a better option. This brings me to what my estimated intrinsic value of BOC Kenya is and my range falls between 170 and 190-200 or there about which means at the current price its undervalued by more than 50%. All this is good but you will need a catalyst for the price to close in, at what my estimated intrinsic value is, and I think I have it and it comes in looking at what the shareholding structure of BOC Kenya limited looks like, first foreign investor run the Kenya stock exchange, in other words they move the market, so should there be a foreign investor sell off what as an investor invested in BOC stock will experience is a price risk and not a business risk, which at this point you should break the bank and accumulate more of BOC stock, a look at the ten largest shareholders they own 83% of the total shares outstanding of which 74% is owned by foreign individuals and institutions and 26% left is owned by local individuals and institutions, as per the new CMA rules since 2013 a foreign institution can own 100% of a Kenyan company up from 75%, so Linde group can up its game and acquire more on the cheap, and if my value of BOC is roughly right Foreign investor will figure out this too and bid the price upwards, what of the opposite if the local institutions should dumb the stock en-mass a price decline is inevitable. I have never invested with total certainty of how the market will react, having most of the odds in my favor is more than I can ask for, secondly as the population of young people in Africa explodes, from a long term view, sales can only increase for BOC Kenya since more and more of its products will be consumed though none of this growth has been factored into my valuation, if and when it happens I would like to get it for free. BOC paid 66% of its earnings as dividends what should catch the intelligent investor is that this is a dividend yield of 88% of BOC Kenya enterprise value, so you get paid very handsomely as you wait for the price to close with your intrinsic value. Find more on valueinveinvestingkenya.wordpress.com

Typo in link, it's valueinvestingkenya.wordpress.com
Good judgement is often the result of experience. Experience is often the result of bad judgement.
VituVingiSana
#6 Posted : Wednesday, April 01, 2020 10:30:44 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 17,021
Location: Nairobi
BOC seeks 20,000 oxygen cylinders in Covid-19 fighthttps://www.businessdailyafrica.com/corporate/companies/BOC-seeks-20000-oxygen-cylinder/4003102-5511254-1313k20/index.html
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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