Home SK - Stocks, Property, Investment Chamas - Investment Groups BIZ - Small Business Soko - Market Wazua Life About Wazua
SIGN IN REGISTER
Sunday, Apr 5, 2020
Investor
We’re investing funds for profit. Join us and wazua!
LATEST DISCUSSIONS
KCB buy buy buy [1095]
Madness at the NSE [2253]
Kenya Airways...why ignore.. [14477]
Safaricom 2019/2020 [278]
Actionable Intelligence [13]
411 on dividend and AGM [787]
First World Markets Shenanigans [132]
Banque de Kigali [466]
Investors Lounge [5357]
Equity Bank 2020 [1]
Exchange Bar: Results forecast [2149]
CIC Insurance 2019 [63]
An analysis of Boc Kenya limited [6]
Stanlib Fahari FY18 [64]
Flame Tree Group 2019 [28]
 
Forum Jump








Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In | Register

169 Pages«<163164165166167>»
Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
whiteowl
#3281 Posted : Tuesday, February 04, 2020 6:00:16 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,394
Location: Bohemian Grove
wukan wrote:
I think NSE fate lies with CBK. There is a negative feedback loop in the real estate which leading to lower bid prices akin to what happened to NSE from around 2014. That damages a lot of balance sheets which were already damaged from the fall in equities. A downward correction in real estate will hurt a lot more of the wenyenchi balance sheets than equities did. I would expect more pressure on MPC to be more aggressive in the rate cuts or do localized QE.


Similar sentiments expressed here
https://www.standardmedi...-an-economy-in-distress


Quote:
Research shows that house prices are indicators of changes in the economy. In other words, the change in house prices passes information about the pending state of the economy.
The value of a house depends on the rent that the tenant pays to the landlord.
In finance, we discount rent in house values, such that when rent increases, the value of the house must also increase because additional income is being generated and vice versa.
This means that it is only in unsound economies that tenants are unable to pay rent thus opening a window for the decline in house prices.


Quote:
Simply put, if a mortgage is for Sh10 million, but the house has declined in value to say Sh7 million, the logical thing to do is to default.
The default will lead to more losses in asset values and low-quality financial institutions.
This explains why debt is largely an option. The debate then is between the interest rate and collateral rates - the rate at which houses are financed with debt - which is the most important to the economy?


QE is a zero sum game when you have dollar denominated loans. It spurs growth but will balloon the debt when the value of the shilling falls. This is the same reason the world bank has accused CBK of artificially propping up the value of the shilling but I don't trust those loan sharks one bit.
Ericsson
#3282 Posted : Wednesday, February 05, 2020 9:36:42 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,187
Location: NAIROBI
whiteowl wrote:
wukan wrote:
I think NSE fate lies with CBK. There is a negative feedback loop in the real estate which leading to lower bid prices akin to what happened to NSE from around 2014. That damages a lot of balance sheets which were already damaged from the fall in equities. A downward correction in real estate will hurt a lot more of the wenyenchi balance sheets than equities did. I would expect more pressure on MPC to be more aggressive in the rate cuts or do localized QE.


Similar sentiments expressed here
https://www.standardmedi...-an-economy-in-distress


Quote:
Research shows that house prices are indicators of changes in the economy. In other words, the change in house prices passes information about the pending state of the economy.
The value of a house depends on the rent that the tenant pays to the landlord.
In finance, we discount rent in house values, such that when rent increases, the value of the house must also increase because additional income is being generated and vice versa.
This means that it is only in unsound economies that tenants are unable to pay rent thus opening a window for the decline in house prices.


Quote:
Simply put, if a mortgage is for Sh10 million, but the house has declined in value to say Sh7 million, the logical thing to do is to default.
The default will lead to more losses in asset values and low-quality financial institutions.
This explains why debt is largely an option. The debate then is between the interest rate and collateral rates - the rate at which houses are financed with debt - which is the most important to the economy?


QE is a zero sum game when you have dollar denominated loans. It spurs growth but will balloon the debt when the value of the shilling falls. This is the same reason the world bank has accused CBK of artificially propping up the value of the shilling but I don't trust those loan sharks one bit.


Dollar denominated loans and a big chunk is commercial loans which come with tough conditions when you want to renegotiate.

Mainat
#3283 Posted : Wednesday, February 05, 2020 10:08:52 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,586
Highly doubt cbk has the withwal to do balance sheet management.
Our economy has one real weak pillar which must be resolved before we see growth.
Government domestic debt.

wukan wrote:
I think NSE fate lies with CBK. There is a negative feedback loop in the real estate which leading to lower bid prices akin to what happened to NSE from around 2014. That damages a lot of balance sheets which were already damaged from the fall in equities. A downward correction in real estate will hurt a lot more of the wenyenchi balance sheets than equities did. I would expect more pressure on MPC to be more aggressive in the rate cuts or do localized QE.


Similar sentiments expressed here
https://www.standardmedi...-an-economy-in-distress


Quote:
Research shows that house prices are indicators of changes in the economy. In other words, the change in house prices passes information about the pending state of the economy.
The value of a house depends on the rent that the tenant pays to the landlord.
In finance, we discount rent in house values, such that when rent increases, the value of the house must also increase because additional income is being generated and vice versa.
This means that it is only in unsound economies that tenants are unable to pay rent thus opening a window for the decline in house prices.


Quote:
Simply put, if a mortgage is for Sh10 million, but the house has declined in value to say Sh7 million, the logical thing to do is to default.
The default will lead to more losses in asset values and low-quality financial institutions.
This explains why debt is largely an option. The debate then is between the interest rate and collateral rates - the rate at which houses are financed with debt - which is the most important to the economy?

Sehemu ndio nyumba
Ericsson
#3284 Posted : Thursday, February 06, 2020 10:52:30 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,187
Location: NAIROBI
lochaz-index wrote:
mnandii wrote:
EQUITY HOLDING GROUP



Equity appears to be on the verge of a collapse to below 33.00.

On the far right we have what appears to be a completed blue wave 1. I expect a small rally to complete wave 2 then a continuation down. The red line at 55.56 is, as always with Elliott Waves, a key resistance which should not be penetrated to the UP side.

NB: There is some price point (not shown) which suggest that Equity traded at around 400. I unfortunately could not manage to plot all that data since the program was not responsive. However the data we have above is still sufficient to make an Elliott Wave forecast which I have endeavored to do above.


Thanks. My target on this one is around 28 thereabouts then I will review it for a long play.


Equity bank is holding above ksh.50
Ericsson
#3285 Posted : Thursday, February 06, 2020 10:59:58 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,187
Location: NAIROBI
mnandii wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
mnandii wrote:


Remember our 36/- target on Safaricom. Be ready to SHORT then.

Watching this one closely.


Safcom may have topped out at 33.50.

A move below 25.00 will be conformation that a top is set at 33.50. If that happens then expect Safcom to fall much further to at least 14.00.


Safaricom is holding above 30.
Ericsson
#3286 Posted : Thursday, February 06, 2020 11:01:32 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,187
Location: NAIROBI
mnandii wrote:
KCB



KCB BANK GROUP fell from 184.53 to 44.11 to complete wave (A). Afterwards it has been consolidation in a likely triangle pattern (the converging trend lines) of wave (B).

I expect KCB to resume its drop to below 22.00




Holding above 51
mlennyma
#3287 Posted : Thursday, February 06, 2020 7:23:01 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,032
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
mnandii wrote:
KCB



KCB BANK GROUP fell from 184.53 to 44.11 to complete wave (A). Afterwards it has been consolidation in a likely triangle pattern (the converging trend lines) of wave (B).

I expect KCB to resume its drop to below 22.00




Holding above 51

what can make Kcb trade at below 22?a split/rights/economy collapse or what ??? let me say miracles do happen
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Angelica _ann
#3288 Posted : Monday, February 24, 2020 4:42:24 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/7/2012
Posts: 11,309
How does this China virus Coronavirus fit with the waves Bw. @mnandii? Any comment on how it is likely to fit into our local scenario.
In the business world, everyone is paid in two coins - cash and experience. Take the experience first; the cash will come later - H Geneen
mlennyma
#3289 Posted : Monday, February 24, 2020 6:15:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,032
Location: nairobi
Angelica _ann wrote:
How does this China virus Coronavirus fit with the waves Bw. @mnandii? Any comment on how it is likely to fit into our local scenario.

Meanwhile we need results and dividend declarations to tame this fall.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Ericsson
#3290 Posted : Monday, February 24, 2020 6:20:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,187
Location: NAIROBI
mlennyma wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:
How does this China virus Coronavirus fit with the waves Bw. @mnandii? Any comment on how it is likely to fit into our local scenario.

Meanwhile we need results and dividend declarations to tame this fall.

No let them delay kiasi.
We buy at bargain prices plus enjoy the dividend
VituVingiSana
#3291 Posted : Monday, February 24, 2020 7:22:34 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 16,895
Location: Nairobi
Angelica _ann wrote:
How does this China virus Coronavirus fit with the waves Bw. @mnandii? Any comment on how it is likely to fit into our local scenario.
Don’t buy or sell ‘based on today’s headlines’

As volatility in the market increases because of the coronavirus, Buffett said not to make investing decisions based on day-to-day moves. “You don’t buy or sell your business based on today’s headlines. If it gives you a chance to buy something you like and you can buy it even cheaper, you’re in good luck,” he said, adding that “you can’t predict the market by reading the daily newspaper.”
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
wukan
#3292 Posted : Tuesday, February 25, 2020 8:51:39 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,340
lochaz-index wrote:
mnandii wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:

I think this is the year that NSE20 prints sub-2000 that we've been waiting for for ages. NPLs currently at around 12% of the loan book should peak at around 18-20% and will need to be flushed out through the P&L either this year or next. However, the biggest risks for banks lie in their bond and real estate portfolios.



#post2409 Posted : Friday, June 01, 2018 5:59:41 PM

Quote:
bartum wrote:
NSE 20 now at 3333,where are headed, will kcb come below 40

wukan wrote:
Largely depends on the outcome of the cat fight between treasury and the CBK. From what I see in the longer NSE 20 chart 2500 is a possibility to complete the double bottom





I don't think NSE 20 Share index will go below 2400 anytime soon

Interesting take. I haven't seen capitulation yet so I fancy the market taking out both 2420 and 2360 support levels when push comes to shove.


NSE 20 share closed at 2452. Another cliff fall tomorrow and the road opens to GFC lows
Ericsson
#3293 Posted : Tuesday, February 25, 2020 9:08:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,187
Location: NAIROBI
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
mnandii wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:

I think this is the year that NSE20 prints sub-2000 that we've been waiting for for ages. NPLs currently at around 12% of the loan book should peak at around 18-20% and will need to be flushed out through the P&L either this year or next. However, the biggest risks for banks lie in their bond and real estate portfolios.



#post2409 Posted : Friday, June 01, 2018 5:59:41 PM

Quote:
bartum wrote:
NSE 20 now at 3333,where are headed, will kcb come below 40

wukan wrote:
Largely depends on the outcome of the cat fight between treasury and the CBK. From what I see in the longer NSE 20 chart 2500 is a possibility to complete the double bottom





I don't think NSE 20 Share index will go below 2400 anytime soon

Interesting take. I haven't seen capitulation yet so I fancy the market taking out both 2420 and 2360 support levels when push comes to shove.


NSE 20 share closed at 2452. Another cliff fall tomorrow and the road opens to GFC lows

Safaricom,kcb,equity bank,Eabl,co-op bank are still trading at highs.
mlennyma
#3294 Posted : Thursday, February 27, 2020 10:45:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,032
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
mnandii wrote:
KCB



KCB BANK GROUP fell from 184.53 to 44.11 to complete wave (A). Afterwards it has been consolidation in a likely triangle pattern (the converging trend lines) of wave (B).

I expect KCB to resume its drop to below 22.00




Holding above 51

watch out for this prophecy
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
lochaz-index
#3295 Posted : Friday, February 28, 2020 2:55:11 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,098
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
mnandii wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:

I think this is the year that NSE20 prints sub-2000 that we've been waiting for for ages. NPLs currently at around 12% of the loan book should peak at around 18-20% and will need to be flushed out through the P&L either this year or next. However, the biggest risks for banks lie in their bond and real estate portfolios.



#post2409 Posted : Friday, June 01, 2018 5:59:41 PM

Quote:
bartum wrote:
NSE 20 now at 3333,where are headed, will kcb come below 40

wukan wrote:
Largely depends on the outcome of the cat fight between treasury and the CBK. From what I see in the longer NSE 20 chart 2500 is a possibility to complete the double bottom





I don't think NSE 20 Share index will go below 2400 anytime soon

Interesting take. I haven't seen capitulation yet so I fancy the market taking out both 2420 and 2360 support levels when push comes to shove.


NSE 20 share closed at 2452. Another cliff fall tomorrow and the road opens to GFC lows

Getting closer.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Ericsson
#3296 Posted : Friday, February 28, 2020 7:19:45 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,187
Location: NAIROBI
mlennyma wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
mnandii wrote:
KCB



KCB BANK GROUP fell from 184.53 to 44.11 to complete wave (A). Afterwards it has been consolidation in a likely triangle pattern (the converging trend lines) of wave (B).

I expect KCB to resume its drop to below 22.00



Holding above 51

watch out for this prophecy

Watching keenly
Ericsson
#3297 Posted : Friday, February 28, 2020 11:01:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,187
Location: NAIROBI
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
mnandii wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:

I think this is the year that NSE20 prints sub-2000 that we've been waiting for for ages. NPLs currently at around 12% of the loan book should peak at around 18-20% and will need to be flushed out through the P&L either this year or next. However, the biggest risks for banks lie in their bond and real estate portfolios.



#post2409 Posted : Friday, June 01, 2018 5:59:41 PM

Quote:
bartum wrote:
NSE 20 now at 3333,where are headed, will kcb come below 40

wukan wrote:
Largely depends on the outcome of the cat fight between treasury and the CBK. From what I see in the longer NSE 20 chart 2500 is a possibility to complete the double bottom





I don't think NSE 20 Share index will go below 2400 anytime soon

Interesting take. I haven't seen capitulation yet so I fancy the market taking out both 2420 and 2360 support levels when push comes to shove.




NSE 20 share closed at 2452. Another cliff fall tomorrow and the road opens to GFC lows

Getting closer.


Economic recession this year
Mukiri
#3298 Posted : Saturday, February 29, 2020 5:18:45 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
Ericsson wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
mnandii wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:

I think this is the year that NSE20 prints sub-2000 that we've been waiting for for ages. NPLs currently at around 12% of the loan book should peak at around 18-20% and will need to be flushed out through the P&L either this year or next. However, the biggest risks for banks lie in their bond and real estate portfolios.



#post2409 Posted : Friday, June 01, 2018 5:59:41 PM

Quote:
bartum wrote:
NSE 20 now at 3333,where are headed, will kcb come below 40

wukan wrote:
Largely depends on the outcome of the cat fight between treasury and the CBK. From what I see in the longer NSE 20 chart 2500 is a possibility to complete the double bottom





I don't think NSE 20 Share index will go below 2400 anytime soon

Interesting take. I haven't seen capitulation yet so I fancy the market taking out both 2420 and 2360 support levels when push comes to shove.




NSE 20 share closed at 2452. Another cliff fall tomorrow and the road opens to GFC lows

Getting closer.


Economic recession this year

More like deleveraging. There's nothing CBK no GOK can do to alleviate the impending catastrophe

Proverbs 19:21
Ericsson
#3299 Posted : Saturday, February 29, 2020 8:15:39 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,187
Location: NAIROBI
Mukiri wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
mnandii wrote:
wukan wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:

I think this is the year that NSE20 prints sub-2000 that we've been waiting for for ages. NPLs currently at around 12% of the loan book should peak at around 18-20% and will need to be flushed out through the P&L either this year or next. However, the biggest risks for banks lie in their bond and real estate portfolios.



#post2409 Posted : Friday, June 01, 2018 5:59:41 PM

Quote:
bartum wrote:
NSE 20 now at 3333,where are headed, will kcb come below 40

wukan wrote:
Largely depends on the outcome of the cat fight between treasury and the CBK. From what I see in the longer NSE 20 chart 2500 is a possibility to complete the double bottom





I don't think NSE 20 Share index will go below 2400 anytime soon

Interesting take. I haven't seen capitulation yet so I fancy the market taking out both 2420 and 2360 support levels when push comes to shove.




NSE 20 share closed at 2452. Another cliff fall tomorrow and the road opens to GFC lows

Getting closer.


Economic recession this year

More like deleveraging. There's nothing CBK no GOK can do to alleviate the impending catastrophe

Same for Central banks world over
Ericsson
#3300 Posted : Tuesday, March 03, 2020 2:24:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 8,187
Location: NAIROBI
Ericsson wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
mnandii wrote:
KCB



KCB BANK GROUP fell from 184.53 to 44.11 to complete wave (A). Afterwards it has been consolidation in a likely triangle pattern (the converging trend lines) of wave (B).

I expect KCB to resume its drop to below 22.00



Holding above 51

watch out for this prophecy

Watching keenly


A bounce back yesterday and today.
Users browsing this topic
Guest (2)
169 Pages«<163164165166167>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Home | . .. Investor | .. . Groups | .. . SME | . . . Market | .. . Club SK | . ..... About Wazua | . .. Search | . ..Sitemap | . ..Support | . ..Disclaimer | . ..Privacy Policy | . ..Terms of Use | . .. Contact Us
Copyright © 2020 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.