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97 Pages«<9091929394>»
Madness at the NSE
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#1821 Posted : Thursday, October 17, 2019 9:54:35 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,060
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli

Bank stocks reacting to the news ATM
Markets
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#1822 Posted : Thursday, October 17, 2019 10:02:46 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,060
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
I agree that at some point they will bow down to the markets especially if USD bulls rage. But it is viable politically, socially and economically to hold things constant for a decade to allow for the debt binge to balance off. Treasury's kick-the-can strategy on debt shows this as more likely.

The biggest casualty will be the poor and the emerging middle class who will stagnate for a decade because of low employment and stagnant wages. However, given the docile nature of kenya's middle class it will have little consequence for the power elite. They can pull it off. Wanjiku is easily taken in by propaganda as @Angel puts it.

A decade? My guesstimate is one year tops before the market shows the way. Bond yields may have already bottomed if what is happening in the Japanese bond and US REPO markets is any kind of indicator. Overall, after retesting and exceeding the 2016 lows, negative yielding bonds are now retreating and it could be a short ride up if this is a liquidity shortage.


You called it @Lochaz-indexApplause Applause Applause
Markets
Ericsson
#1823 Posted : Thursday, October 17, 2019 10:38:10 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,630
Location: NAIROBI
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:

Bank stocks reacting to the news ATM


So far only KCB and Equity bank share prices reacting,the rest are mute.
I&M on the loosing end
Fyatu
#1824 Posted : Thursday, October 17, 2019 10:53:47 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,634
Location: Nakuru
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Following the Prseident's refusal to sign the Finance bill until the rate cap is done away with, September 2019's 10 year low of 2420 will be the floor.....




Woe unto those who are not inside the market.....watabaki tu kukula na macho.
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
Ericsson
#1825 Posted : Thursday, October 17, 2019 11:44:43 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,630
Location: NAIROBI
Fyatu wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Following the Prseident's refusal to sign the Finance bill until the rate cap is done away with, September 2019's 10 year low of 2420 will be the floor.....




Woe unto those who are not inside the market.....watabaki tu kukula na macho.

Market conditions still weak to push a rally.Top gainer today is at 4%.
wukan
#1826 Posted : Thursday, October 17, 2019 5:32:12 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,228
Ericsson wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Following the Prseident's refusal to sign the Finance bill until the rate cap is done away with, September 2019's 10 year low of 2420 will be the floor.....




Woe unto those who are not inside the market.....watabaki tu kukula na macho.

Market conditions still weak to push a rally.Top gainer today is at 4%.


This bear will teach many a lesson. The problem is structural and interest rates on their own won't deal with the underlying structural issues. Fiscal stimulus has failed to stimulate the expected growth now they will try monetary stimulus. You need to look at point 3 of the president's memo.

Technically looking at the chart you can see the tail has to be longer than where it is now to complete the correction.
Ericsson
#1827 Posted : Thursday, October 17, 2019 5:39:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,630
Location: NAIROBI
wukan wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Following the Prseident's refusal to sign the Finance bill until the rate cap is done away with, September 2019's 10 year low of 2420 will be the floor.....




Woe unto those who are not inside the market.....watabaki tu kukula na macho.

Market conditions still weak to push a rally.Top gainer today is at 4%.


This bear will teach many a lesson. The problem is structural and interest rates on their own won't deal with the underlying structural issues. Fiscal stimulus has failed to stimulate the expected growth now they will try monetary stimulus. You need to look at point 3 of the president's memo.

Technically looking at the chart you can see the tail has to be longer than where it is now to complete the correction.


Can you post the full memo here or provide a link
wukan
#1828 Posted : Thursday, October 17, 2019 5:48:57 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,228
lochaz-index
#1829 Posted : Thursday, October 17, 2019 6:20:10 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 988
wukan wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Following the Prseident's refusal to sign the Finance bill until the rate cap is done away with, September 2019's 10 year low of 2420 will be the floor.....




Woe unto those who are not inside the market.....watabaki tu kukula na macho.

Market conditions still weak to push a rally.Top gainer today is at 4%.


This bear will teach many a lesson. The problem is structural and interest rates on their own won't deal with the underlying structural issues. Fiscal stimulus has failed to stimulate the expected growth now they will try monetary stimulus. You need to look at point 3 of the president's memo.

Technically looking at the chart you can see the tail has to be longer than where it is now to complete the correction.

Seconded. @SPT that low of 2420 will hold for now but it will be broken down the road. The NSE20 will conjure up a rally after the cap is lifted but I don't envisage it going beyond 3000. Still a traders market through 2020. KE is still hurtling towards an economic shit storm which can't be undone by fiat or a stroke of the pen.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
Fyatu
#1830 Posted : Thursday, October 17, 2019 10:25:55 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,634
Location: Nakuru
wukan wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Following the Prseident's refusal to sign the Finance bill until the rate cap is done away with, September 2019's 10 year low of 2420 will be the floor.....




Woe unto those who are not inside the market.....watabaki tu kukula na macho.

Market conditions still weak to push a rally.Top gainer today is at 4%.


This bear will teach many a lesson. The problem is structural and interest rates on their own won't deal with the underlying structural issues. Fiscal stimulus has failed to stimulate the expected growth now they will try monetary stimulus. You need to look at point 3 of the president's memo.

Technically looking at the chart you can see the tail has to be longer than where it is now to complete the correction.



I am not a TA, however, i have noticed general lack of supply in most stocks over the recent past(6 months)and reduced turnover hinting that perhaps we have bottomed-out.

I am keen to know how low the NSE20 can go as you seem to suggest. Can it go sub 1500 points? If it goes sub 1500 what will be the price of KCB or Equity or Safaricom etc shares? . Is there a possibility of seeing KCB at sub 17 bob or Safaricom at sub 12 bob? Will Britam trade at 3bob?

I strongly doubt the index will go any lower than 2420.Also, you will notice that most companies posted improved numbers HY2019 and there were less profit warnings. Most tier 1 banks performed very well and are highly likely to post better results FY2019 that previously posted pre-rate cap.

The bear is good. I want it to last a little longer so that i can cement my positions.
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
Fyatu
#1831 Posted : Thursday, October 17, 2019 10:31:09 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,634
Location: Nakuru
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Following the Prseident's refusal to sign the Finance bill until the rate cap is done away with, September 2019's 10 year low of 2420 will be the floor.....




Woe unto those who are not inside the market.....watabaki tu kukula na macho.

Market conditions still weak to push a rally.Top gainer today is at 4%.


This bear will teach many a lesson. The problem is structural and interest rates on their own won't deal with the underlying structural issues. Fiscal stimulus has failed to stimulate the expected growth now they will try monetary stimulus. You need to look at point 3 of the president's memo.

Technically looking at the chart you can see the tail has to be longer than where it is now to complete the correction.

Seconded. @SPT that low of 2420 will hold for now but it will be broken down the road. The NSE20 will conjure up a rally after the cap is lifted but I don't envisage it going beyond 3000. Still a traders market through 2020. KE is still hurtling towards an economic shit storm which can't be undone by fiat or a stroke of the pen.


Are you suggesting that rate cap is not a significant factor in the slow growth the nation has experienced in the past 3 years and that repealing it will not resuscitate my ailing portfolio? Are you saying that there is a boogy man still lurking around?
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
obiero
#1832 Posted : Thursday, October 17, 2019 11:12:42 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 12,383
Location: nairobi
Fyatu wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Following the Prseident's refusal to sign the Finance bill until the rate cap is done away with, September 2019's 10 year low of 2420 will be the floor.....




Woe unto those who are not inside the market.....watabaki tu kukula na macho.

Market conditions still weak to push a rally.Top gainer today is at 4%.


This bear will teach many a lesson. The problem is structural and interest rates on their own won't deal with the underlying structural issues. Fiscal stimulus has failed to stimulate the expected growth now they will try monetary stimulus. You need to look at point 3 of the president's memo.

Technically looking at the chart you can see the tail has to be longer than where it is now to complete the correction.

Seconded. @SPT that low of 2420 will hold for now but it will be broken down the road. The NSE20 will conjure up a rally after the cap is lifted but I don't envisage it going beyond 3000. Still a traders market through 2020. KE is still hurtling towards an economic shit storm which can't be undone by fiat or a stroke of the pen.


Are you suggesting that rate cap is not a significant factor in the slow growth the nation has experienced in the past 3 years and that repealing it will not resuscitate my ailing portfolio? Are you saying that there is a boogy man still lurking around?

The financial sector at the NSE will rally somewhat
COOP 5,500 ABP12.6; HF 2,000 ABP 5.90; KCB 7,500 ABP 36; KNRE 100,000 ABP 2.90; KQ 221,100 ABP 12.68
Fyatu
#1833 Posted : Friday, October 18, 2019 7:43:22 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/20/2011
Posts: 1,634
Location: Nakuru
obiero wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Following the Prseident's refusal to sign the Finance bill until the rate cap is done away with, September 2019's 10 year low of 2420 will be the floor.....




Woe unto those who are not inside the market.....watabaki tu kukula na macho.

Market conditions still weak to push a rally.Top gainer today is at 4%.


This bear will teach many a lesson. The problem is structural and interest rates on their own won't deal with the underlying structural issues. Fiscal stimulus has failed to stimulate the expected growth now they will try monetary stimulus. You need to look at point 3 of the president's memo.

Technically looking at the chart you can see the tail has to be longer than where it is now to complete the correction.

Seconded. @SPT that low of 2420 will hold for now but it will be broken down the road. The NSE20 will conjure up a rally after the cap is lifted but I don't envisage it going beyond 3000. Still a traders market through 2020. KE is still hurtling towards an economic shit storm which can't be undone by fiat or a stroke of the pen.


Are you suggesting that rate cap is not a significant factor in the slow growth the nation has experienced in the past 3 years and that repealing it will not resuscitate my ailing portfolio? Are you saying that there is a boogy man still lurking around?

The financial sector at the NSE will rally somewhat


It is not a question of if but when ....to quote Dr. Opus
Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
Ericsson
#1834 Posted : Friday, October 18, 2019 10:52:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,630
Location: NAIROBI
Fyatu wrote:
obiero wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
wukan wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Following the Prseident's refusal to sign the Finance bill until the rate cap is done away with, September 2019's 10 year low of 2420 will be the floor.....




Woe unto those who are not inside the market.....watabaki tu kukula na macho.

Market conditions still weak to push a rally.Top gainer today is at 4%.


This bear will teach many a lesson. The problem is structural and interest rates on their own won't deal with the underlying structural issues. Fiscal stimulus has failed to stimulate the expected growth now they will try monetary stimulus. You need to look at point 3 of the president's memo.

Technically looking at the chart you can see the tail has to be longer than where it is now to complete the correction.

Seconded. @SPT that low of 2420 will hold for now but it will be broken down the road. The NSE20 will conjure up a rally after the cap is lifted but I don't envisage it going beyond 3000. Still a traders market through 2020. KE is still hurtling towards an economic shit storm which can't be undone by fiat or a stroke of the pen.


Are you suggesting that rate cap is not a significant factor in the slow growth the nation has experienced in the past 3 years and that repealing it will not resuscitate my ailing portfolio? Are you saying that there is a boogy man still lurking around?

The financial sector at the NSE will rally somewhat


It is not a question of if but when ....to quote Dr. Opus


Coop share price getting a dip
Ericsson
#1835 Posted : Sunday, October 20, 2019 9:25:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,630
Location: NAIROBI
Ericsson wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Following the Prseident's refusal to sign the Finance bill until the rate cap is done away with, September 2019's 10 year low of 2420 will be the floor.....




Woe unto those who are not inside the market.....watabaki tu kukula na macho.

Market conditions still weak to push a rally.Top gainer today is at 4%.


Kcb, Cooperative bank, Equity bank saw share price appreciation with net foreign selling
whiteowl
#1836 Posted : Monday, October 21, 2019 10:06:08 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,368
Location: Bohemian Grove
Ericsson wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Following the Prseident's refusal to sign the Finance bill until the rate cap is done away with, September 2019's 10 year low of 2420 will be the floor.....




Woe unto those who are not inside the market.....watabaki tu kukula na macho.

Market conditions still weak to push a rally.Top gainer today is at 4%.


Kcb, Cooperative bank, Equity bank saw share price appreciation with net foreign selling


Some see this as the last chance to get out without a huge haircut before things get worse.
Horton
#1837 Posted : Monday, October 21, 2019 12:20:32 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,484
Location: Nairobi
whiteowl wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Fyatu wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Following the Prseident's refusal to sign the Finance bill until the rate cap is done away with, September 2019's 10 year low of 2420 will be the floor.....




Woe unto those who are not inside the market.....watabaki tu kukula na macho.

Market conditions still weak to push a rally.Top gainer today is at 4%.


Kcb, Cooperative bank, Equity bank saw share price appreciation with net foreign selling


Some see this as the last chance to get out without a huge haircut before things get worse.



Some? Who are these?
wukan
#1838 Posted : Tuesday, October 22, 2019 11:31:55 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,228
One of the reasons I'm watching NSE from the sidelines

Quote:
For every Sh100 that Kenya collected as taxes in the three months to September, it used Sh57 on debt payments, underlining the heavy burden of mounting government borrowing.

Data from the Treasury shows that Sh214.79 billion was used for loan repayments in the first quarter of the financial year, making it the single-largest expenditure in the period to September.

The repayments accounted for 57 percent of the Sh372 billion that the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) collected in taxes in the period under review, denying the State the cash it needs for projects like building roads, power plants and revamping the health sector.


Quote:
The debt payment in the quarter to September is 40 percent more than the Sh153 billion that taxpayers paid in a similar period a year earlier, when loan settlement costs took 46.7 percent of taxes.


https://www.businessdail...20324-ei716mz/index.html
whiteowl
#1839 Posted : Tuesday, October 22, 2019 3:53:21 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,368
Location: Bohemian Grove
wukan wrote:
One of the reasons I'm watching NSE from the sidelines

Quote:
For every Sh100 that Kenya collected as taxes in the three months to September, it used Sh57 on debt payments, underlining the heavy burden of mounting government borrowing.

Data from the Treasury shows that Sh214.79 billion was used for loan repayments in the first quarter of the financial year, making it the single-largest expenditure in the period to September.

The repayments accounted for 57 percent of the Sh372 billion that the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) collected in taxes in the period under review, denying the State the cash it needs for projects like building roads, power plants and revamping the health sector.


Quote:
The debt payment in the quarter to September is 40 percent more than the Sh153 billion that taxpayers paid in a similar period a year earlier, when loan settlement costs took 46.7 percent of taxes.


https://www.businessdail...0324-ei716mz/index.html


This is also an incentive for CBK to keep the shilling artificially strong.If the shilling weakens by a mere 5%, that would result in 300 billion more to pay With the current 6 trillion loan book since most loans are USD denominated.We're locked in a perpetual credit squeeze.
Ericsson
#1840 Posted : Wednesday, October 23, 2019 11:52:17 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 7,630
Location: NAIROBI
The temporary rally seems to have come to a halt
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